As a consultant, I work with people who have plenty of problems. (No one calls a consultant when things are going well.) Many of these nice people feel as if they should be able to find a simple and direct solution to their problems. Simple and direct solutions assume we know enough about the risks and how to manage those risks. We often use rules or guidelines to help us manage those risks.
But these people don’t have simple organizations or problems.
Instead, they work in a complex adaptive system. That’s where one change can ripple through the system, changing everything else. We have feedback loops, whether or not we want them—or can see them. Those feedback loops require experiments, to see what kinds of changes can work.
Here’s a trivial example of a simple and direct solution to a problem. I recently wanted to bake a non-dairy (vegan) flourless chocolate cake. I’ve baked this cake for years, so I understand how the ingredients work. However, when I looked in the fridge for the vegan butter, I didn’t have enough for the recipe. On the other hand, I did have a variety of coconut cream, milk, and butter. All of that is non-dairy. I made a reasonable substitute with coconut cream, made the cake, and people enjoyed it.
That was a simple and direct solution to a straightforward problem.
Organizations rarely have problems that simple. Society never has problems that simple and direct. Instead, we need to experiment to learn before we decide what to do.
A Societal Example of Needing Experiments
Here’s a local example in my town: Decades ago, the town zoned relatively small lots for single family homes, in the interest of walkable neighborhoods. That created several problems we’re dealing with now:
- Insufficient space for businesses, except on the main drag through town. Because we don’t have a large business base, homeowners pay ever-more increasing property taxes.
- The cost of housing, rental or ownership, has risen much faster than inflation over the years, because there is no place to build new homes—unless we change the zoning.
- Because we fund schools with property taxes, no one wants a tax increase. That means we might not fund the schools enough. (We’ve had to pass several tax overrides.)
The zoning board wasn’t wrong back then. But that one decision about lot size and single family homes created these problems and many more. We have no simple and direct solutions. If we want to change the tax burden, increase the business base, and to somehow create more housing stock that people can afford, we need experiments.
All big and complex problems need experiments because we might need several solutions to solve these big problems.
Big and Complex Problems Need Experiments
My town can experiment to see where multi-unit housing works better. Or the town might offer incentives for affordable housing (if they can find a space to build).
As my clients experiment to reduce their work in progress, they often discover or uncover forces that prevent their initial experiments from succeeding. They need more options.
Societal problems often require many options and more experiments. For example, if we want to stop global warming, we do need fewer gasoline-powered devices. However, that’s not enough. We also need alternative energy sources in the small (cars and houses) and in the large (the energy grid). And while we’re experimenting, we need to reconsider where we build homes. (Are there reasons to build in a flood zone?)
The more (and shorter) experiments we can make, the more likely we can find reasonable options that will address part of our problem. And, as with most complex problems, we tend to need several options to solve the real issues. More experiments with shorter feedback loops help us learn what and how to adapt.
That’s why there is no “just do this” in response to a big and complex problem. We often need many experiments with many options, to test what might and might not work.
My clients and society will still crave the simple and direct solutions, because we are all so, so human. However, we will adapt and thrive—and innovate—with more experiments.
That’s the question this week: How can we move from craving simple direct solutions to adapting with experiments?