The world feels more complex now, where the Big Issues of the Day create “interesting” times in our lives. Even planning for vacation often requires adaptability. We must be ready to toss those plans when the circumstances change.
Some people tell me we need to “return” to simpler times. Or that we can use direct, cause-and-effect, or linear thinking. (If this, then that.)
I wish we could. But that “returning” to simpler times doesn’t pass the smell test for me. First, I know all those times were not simpler. And second, since no one has a time machine, we can’t return.
Our only option is to proceed, moving forward. Then the question becomes: how do you want to organize or plan that forward movement?
That’s why I embrace complexity, with all its messiness, uncertainty, and lack of predictability. I use Cynefin as a sense-making framework to clarify my decision-making options.
In Complex times (the upper left part of the Cynefin picture), we need to interact with our context before deciding which actions make sense. That’s why I plan with small bets, framed as experiments.
Because each experiment is small, I can choose one almost at random. Once I have the results, I can replan for the future because I know more about my context.
Small Experiments or Bets Create More Options for the Future
Let me clarify more about how I create and use these small experiments.
- I generate at least three options as small bets, using the Rule of Three. If one option looks “big,” I’ll split it so I can bet smaller.
- Then, because each choice is small, I don’t have to worry about the cost or the time for each bet. Sometimes, I select the most appealing option first. The idea is to help me learn more about the context first.
- As I work through the bets, I learn more about the context. Depending on the complexity, I might need to create more options. However, I often discover that somewhere between three and seven experiments reduce the complexity enough for me to have more confidence in my plans.
Does this approach look familiar to you? These ideas reflect a lean and agile approach to either product management or project portfolio management.
These ideas work on a personal level, too. Especially for big, intransigent problems.
Personal Bets
If you have diversified your retirement funds, you already embrace complexity. And if you rented a car before you bought it, you used a small bet.
I do a lot of experiments with my physical therapist to ensure I won’t fall over even if I’m tired or on uneven ground. We’ve changed a number of my exercises so I can stay upright and increase my strength. I can’t cure my vertigo, but I can become more physically resilient. We experiment with a small bet in a relatively safe place every time we change something. We don’t keep all those changes. However, I report back to him, and he measures my strength. We see how well these bets work. We embrace complexity.
Embrace Complexity
Embracing complexity forces me to create many more options. I don’t waste time wishing for things to “return.” Instead, I use experiments to sense where I am. And while small bets are no guarantee we can avoid problems, we make the problems and their outcomes smaller. That helps prevent much more significant problems.
Sometimes, those options help me see small alternatives for an original goal. Other times, small experiments help me imagine new goals.
We can’t avoid complexity. And we don’t have to let complexity drag us through wishful thinking. Instead, we can embrace complexity and create many more options. And then use the idea of small bets and experiments to see where we can go.
We can take charge of our parts of the world.
Announcements…
I’m leading a session at the Leading Complexity series of masterclasses: Modern Management: Position Yourself to Take Advantage of Complexity. Yes, it’s about the ideas in the Modern Management books, but you’ll recognize many of the ideas. Use this coupon for a 20% discount: ROTHMANFRIEND20.
I’ve published Free Your Inner Nonfiction Writer everywhere. I am still waiting on the paperback approval, but the ebook “should” be available at your favorite retailer or library.
Read More of Create an Adaptable Life
New to the newsletter? See previous issues.
Here are other links you might find useful:
- Create an Adaptable Life Blog to see the blog, not just the newsletter.
- My Books
- My Public Workshops
- Managing Product Development Blog
- Johanna’s Fiction
Till next time,
Johanna
© 2022 Johanna Rothman