Do you feel as if the world is so complex that you need to somehow make it simpler—just to decide what to do next? If so, you are not alone. However, making things simpler is often not enough. Instead, we need to bring more critical thinking skills to bear on the various problems.
We have examples of simple and insufficient thinking right now.
- Some managers want to replace everyone with AI now because they think that will make programming simpler. While that might be possible in the future, it’s definitely not possible right now.
- I hear too many people say, “Let’s return to a simpler time.” That might be great—except the world has changed. That simpler time does not account for how people live and work now.
Sometimes, simplifying the problem does work. More often, simplifying means we don’t even see the entire problem. If we don’t see the entire problem, it’s easy for us to get stuck.
This Ted Williams quote sums it up perfectly:
“If you don’t think too good, don’t think too much.”
How can we think more clearly? Consider zooming out so we can determine what is knowable about the various problems.
What is Knowable?
I like the Cynefin framework for clarifying what we do and do not know about our various problems. (That’s the image on the top of this post.)
When we are in the Complex part of the framework, we have unknown unknowns. How will this person react to the current circumstance? How will other people react? We can’t know. That’s why it’s useful to do a small experiment: that probe. If the probe is small enough, we can get data back (the sense). We can then choose how to respond.
However, many difficult problems require several probes. And the experiment time can vary between probe.
That means that many small probes (experiments) can allow us to gather more information and clarify what is unknown. That prevents us from choosing a direct path too early. Instead, we can create more options with an indirect path.
And each of those alternatives requires a lot of hard thinking. No wonder people want to return to a simpler time.
Here’s a real-life example I’m struggling with. My editor offered feedback about my Effective Public Speaking book. He said it was too generic. Well, that’s not good!
I’m not rewriting it in the sense of starting over. Instead, I’m threading information through the book to focus the book on my intended audience. However, that means that the Kickstarter I had planned for “spring” is no longer in the “spring.” If I do one, it will be in the summer or early fall.
That date change means all my other dates change for my outcomes this year. (I bet some of you are living with that right now!) I do not know yet what I will choose to do about all my big plans this year, except that they will change. And now that the economy is changing, I have even more unknowns.
I know what to do about my daily schedule and the book. However, I will need to look for other signals and possibly launch some small probes of my own to decide about a Kickstarter.
But blindly going forward with my original plans? No. That would be foolish because I don’t know enough, not yet. I will not stick with my original plan, which is the simple solution.
Simple Solutions Feel Good
While simple solutions feel good, they are often not adequate for our current reality. And reality always wins.
Instead, let’s embrace complexity thinking. That will allow or encourage you to learn more and faster to reduce the unknowns. Once you know more, you can make better decisions.
We can think better and avoid the lure of the simple solution.