This is Johanna Rothman’s February 2025 Create an Adaptable Life Newsletter. The unsubscribe link is at the bottom of this email.
A reader asked when I choose to manage risks with contingency planning. I had to think about the question because I’m often aware of various risks. In my life and projects, I often make small adjustments to stay on track. (That’s why I use leading indicators, not lagging indicators for data.) Every so often, I need to create contingency plans.
That’s why I added the image above, to show how I think about risks. I’ll start with risk awareness.
Clarify Risk Awareness
We are all aware of various risks all the time. That’s why we put gas in our cars (or plug them in for power), get enough sleep so we are ready for the next day, and check the weather to know what to wear or possible travel risks.
Most of us do that level of risk awareness without even thinking much of it. I make it part of my routine, and I suspect you do, too.
I suspect that what most of us call “adulting” is about being aware of and preventing too many daily risks in our lives.
Then, there are the various sizes of adjustments so we can have easier lives.
Adjust as Needed
We all adjust as needed, whether it’s driving, sleeping, or what to wear for the weather. Sometimes, as is the case with a detour, we adjust on the fly. (A small example of the change model in action.) Other times, we need more adjustments.
I check my Fitbit and my Oura to make sure I’m walking enough and getting enough “useful” exercise. Sometimes, wandering around the house, I get plenty of steps, but not much useful exercise. When I take both of those measures together, I have a leading indicator of what I need to do for the rest of the day.
Notice that I have to check these measures regularly—otherwise, they become lagging indicators. But since I’m somewhat fanatical about getting my steps and my exercise, I do check often enough.
That’s because I shorten my feedback loops. (See Project Lifecycles: How to Reduce Risks, Release Successful Products, and Increase Agility for how to do this at work, not just personally.)
The longer the feedback loop, the less likely you can adjust as needed. Worse, the more likely you will need contingency plans.
Create Contingency Plans
I use a contingency plan all the time—my rollator. That’s because I am very well aware of the risks of my falling. I do not want to fall under any circumstances. Because of my vertigo, I don’t recognize (unaware) that I am starting to fall. That means I can’t possibly adjust fast enough to catch myself before I fall over. So I use the rollator as a contingency plan.
I also use other contingency plans, such as having sufficient food in the pantry in case we lose power in the winter or during a storm. (Pantry food will sustain us without needing power to heat or cool it. It’s sufficient, not terrific.)
However, this person wanted to know about contingency plans when everything is in chaos.
I don’t think we can have good contingency plans yet. However, based on our personal risks, we can choose the risks we want to manage and create contingencies for those. What risks do you need to manage the most? Consider these possibilities:
- Start with money: Consider the effects of higher inflation for any loans, long-term savings, or college educations. That’s because money can buy you freedom from many problems. Not all, but many.
- If you are not an obviously straight white person, do you need to carry an id that proves your citizenship? Or choose where to go, to manage your risks of other people taking offense at you? (I’m not saying this is good. It’s terrible. But we all need to be aware of and make small adjustments to manage our risks.)
- Which other personal risks do you need to manage to create your life that allows for more ease? Do that.
As we learn more about what our society will be, we can move between risk awareness, small and large adjustments, and then real contingency plans. That’s why I called it a continuum. We move across the continuum as necessary. I like to do that with small plans that lead to big results over time. That’s the point of adjusting as needed.
Adjust as Needed
I rarely create and use big plans. Instead, I create an overarching goal for what I want to accomplish. That’s because my plans—just as my clients—need to change more often than I might like. Instead, I plan to the next milestone that will help me accomplish my goals.
that’s the point of using a risk continuum. To notice risks (awareness), make continual adjustments, and, if necessary, create contingency plans.
Announcements…
I expect to open the registration for the Q2 2025 Writing Workshop 1: Free Your Inner Writer & Sell Your Nonfiction Ideas in the next few weeks. If you write fiction, I have options for how you can use this workshop for your content marketing.
I have just published the early draft of Effective Public Speaking: How to Use Content Marketing With Stories to Show Your Value. It’s only available on leanpub right now. If you do not like reading books in progress, do not buy it yet!
If you are part of the agile community, consider checking out The Agile Network. Also, don’t miss out on discounted membership options. Use Discount Code: ROTHMANPMC33 to get 33% OFF all memberships. I’m speaking several times at the February micro-conference in two weeks.
Links
My Books. (If you’ve read any author’s book, please consider leaving a review. Your reviews help readers find books.) Also, my store is up. I do not yet have all the links on all the book pages (!!) but yes, you can go there and buy my self-published books and all my audiobooks.
See my Linktree with all the relevant links.
Till next time,
Johanna
© 2025 Johanna Rothman